A little Heisman talk

So a buddy of mine just called and asked me for my opinion on the Heisman Trophy, which will be handed out tonight in New York City (7 p.m., ESPN). I've had this discussion with a couple dozen different people over the past several weeks. Honestly, it's a fascinating discussion. Nearly 1,000 people vote to make this decision, and all of those people are just like me: they have their own distinct opinions. And each one has his own definition on what "most outstanding" means.

According to StiffArmTrophy.com, which has correctly predicted the Heisman winner each of hte past seven years, it's a three-horse race between Alabama RB Mark Ingram, Stanford RB Toby Gerhart and Nebraska DT Ndamukong (pronounced in-dam-uh-kun) Suh with the golden-boy QBs from Texas (Colt McCoy) and Florida (Tim Tebow) running a distant fourth and fifth.

It's funny that we're looking at such a close race with these three contenders in what has turned into one of the most wide open races in years (and perhaps the most exciting race ever) since we entered the season with all three of last year's finalists (McCoy, Tebow and last year's winner, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford) back and expected to make repeat trips to NYC for the award show. But that's what makes college football so unpredictable. Bradford injured his throwing shoulder in the Sooners' opening game, tried to come back and was reinjured before opting for surgery. Tebow was not his same dominant self as he was when he won the Heisman as a sophomore and finished third last year. The Gators simply lost too many offensive weapons and Tebow struggled. McCoy, meanwhile, seemed to be firmly in control until a near meltdown and loss to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game, which served as a coming out party for Suh's Heisman campaign.

Here's a breakdown of each candidate in order of projected finish:

1. Mark Ingram, So., RB, Alabama -- StiffArmTrophy.com projects Ingram to walk away with the trophy, which would make him the third sophomore in a row to win the award (after having no underclassmen receive it before Tebow did in 2007) and the first player in Alabama's storied history to receive the award (which is amazing). The 5-10, 215-pounder has one thing going for him: he's the best offensive player on the nation's #1 team, which too many voters exchange for "most outstanding." His stats are solid, if not jawdropping -- 1,429 yards rushing, 6.5 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns, another 3 receiving touchdowns. But there are a few knocks. He scored only half of his team's total rushing scores, and at times you could argue that freshman RB Trent Richardson was the best running back on the Crimson Tide's team. Ingram is a powerful runner who fits perfectly in what coach Nick Saban wants to do. He'll pick up some votes because of how good Alabama's team is, and also because the Tide have never had anyone win this award. However, I'm not sure he's the best running back in the country.

2. Toby Gerhart, Sr., RB, Stanford -- The 6-1, 235-pounder is a throwback to old-school football players with his powerful running style and will to deliver hits instead of taking them. He's also a throwback student-athlete who plays two sports (he's also an MLB prospect on Stanford's baseball team) at one of the country's most prestigious universities. He's a rarity in that he's a white running back who refused to take everyone's suggestion that he'd be better suited to play LB. Gerhart's stats jump off the page compared to Ingram's. He carried the ball nearly 100 times more than Ingram, who had the luxury of playing not only with Richardson but also senior Roy Upchurch. Alabama could use a RB by committee. Gerhart was Stanford's running game, as the Cardinal's second-leading rusher was QB Andrew Luck and third-leading rusher had 55 carries. Gerhart rushed for 1,736 yards, an average of 5.6 per carry, and more importantly scored 26 TDs -- 11 more than Ingram's rushing/receiving combined. Take Ingram off the Tide and they might not be in the national title game, but they'd still likely have gone 12-0 before playing Florida. Take Gerhart off Stanford, and the Cardinal are not going to a bowl game, much less winning 8 games. He does have a few knocks: he plays on the West Coast, so many voters didn't see him play often, if at all, and the Pac-10 doesn't have the reputation of the SEC in terms of strong defenses; also there will be those who don't vote for him because Stanford lost four games, though it didn't hurt Tebow when he won the award two years ago.

3. Ndamukong Suh, Sr., DT, Nebraska -- Let me start off with all of the reasons why Suh shouldn't win the award. He not only plays defense, but he plays on the defensive line. On top of that, he plays defensive tackle, which is about as unsexy of a position as there is on the football field. He didn't play on a great team in Nebraska, which has lost four games, although that isn't Suh's fault. The Huskers' defense is great; it's not his fault the offense is offensive. While Nebraska is a program full of history, the program has been down and isn't one of the sexy programs like the SEC or fellow Big 12 teams like Oklahoma or Texas. And a reason that might seem weird, but will have a profound affect, is that many people can't pronounce his name. Who's easier to vote for -- Mark, Toby, Colt, Tim ... or Ndamukong? Seriously, that should have no business resonating with voters, but it will. What hopefully will resonate more is Suh's production: a team-leading 82 tackles (seriously, how many DTs lead the team in tackling two years in a row?), 23 tackles for loss, 24 QB hurries, 12 sacks and 10 passes defensed. Let's pause for a second. Suh is 6-4, 300 pounds and is powerful enough to dominate the running game against double teams but also athletic enough to get to the quarterback and also deflect passes and block kicks (3). He also intercepted a pass and had two INTs last year. It's no wonder he's considered the #1 prospect heading into the NFL draft, which shouldn't have an affect on the voting. What should, though, is the way he utterly destroyed Colt McCoy and almost led Nebraska to an upset of Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Seriously, if the Huskers had an offense, they wouldn't have lost 13-12. Of the 313 ballots collected by StiffArmTrophy.com (about 1/3 of all ballots), Suh leads the way with 92 first-place votes. But 134 voters left him off their ballots, which include the top three players (with the votes receiving points of 5-3-1). The voters have come a long way this decade (see Adrian Peterson finished 2nd as a freshman, and Tebow-McCoy winning the award as sophomores), but I just don't think they are open-minded enough to give the award to an interior lineman. Unfortunately, the Heisman is still viewed as an offensive award that should go to the best QB or RB on the best team in the country.

4. Colt McCoy, Sr., QB, Texas -- I'll admit that I've been harsh on McCoy, who I've said prior that I didn't believe deserved a trip to NYC as a finalist. I might be willing to go back on that statement. First off all, I like McCoy. He's a likeable guy who's a winner. He had some huge holes to fill stepping in as a freshman after Vince Young departed, and all he's done is win. The 'Horns have won 10 games every year he's been on campus, and now he has Texas in the national title game, even if it came with some controversy. Last year, I would have been fine had McCoy won the Heisman. His 76.7% completion percentage is the best ever. He threw for 3,859 yards and 34 TDs compared to just 8 INTs. And there were those who felt Texas should have played for the national title last year. This year, though, he just hasn't been as sharp. His yards are down (3,512), his TDs are down (27), and although he's still completing 70% of his passes, his INTs are up (12). He also doesn't have a signature game. In the Big 12 title game, after Tebow had failed and Ingram had played well but not necessarily lights-out in the SEC title game, McCoy had one of his worst games. He threw three picks, zero touchdowns, didn't pass for 200 yards, was a non-factor in the running game, and was sacked 9 times, including 4.5 by Suh. That's not to mention his lack of understanding of the basic clock rules. Luckily for McCoy and the 'Horns, the officials (wrongly, in my eyes) put a second back on the clock and allowed Texas to kick a game-winning FG, escaping with a 13-12 win, and marching to the national title game. Once Bradford went down with his injury, and Tebow started slowly, I think most people assumed McCoy would waltz his way to the trophy. That's likely the only reason he's even in NYC, and why he's fallen down to fourth.

5. Tim Tebow, Sr., QB, Florida -- Let me perfectly clear: I'm a Tim Tebow fan. He represents everything that's right about college football. He plays with passion, plays with heart, plays with pride, gives credit to God, doesn't get in trouble off the field, produces wins and is a great leader. He's won a Heisman and two national titles, and although Florida's loss to Alabama in the SEC title game prevented him for winning a third title and supplanting his legacy as perhaps the best college football player of all-time, his legacy is still tremendous. All that said, he shouldn't be here. Let's not even argue that he was the fifth "most outstanding" player in the country this year. We'll get into that in a second. But he shouldn't have been invited to NYC, and the only reason he was is because he's a former winner and now a three-time finalist. The Downtown Athletic Club, which runs the Heisman Trust, doesn't always invite five finalists. Last year, it was just Bradford, McCoy and Tebow. They normally determine it based upon a percentage of votes. According to StiffArmTrophy.com, Tebow is only on 54 of the 313 ballots that have been made public. McCoy was on nearly 100 more. Simply put, there's a major difference between the totals for McCoy and for Tebow, meaning there should only have been four finalists this year, but the Downtown Athletic Club invited Tebow because he's Tebow. As a sophomore, when he won the award, Tebow compiled 4,181 yards of offense and scored 55 total TDs (32 passing, 23 rushing). Last year, those numbers dipped to 3,420 yards of offense and 42 TDs. While he led the team in rushing with 859 yards this year, he combined for just 3,217 total yards and 31 TDs. The kid has had a great career, but I'm just not sure his stats show that is a Heisman finalist this year.

How would I vote? I've gone back and forth on this. I think Ingram is going to win it. Too many voters are looking for the best player on the best team and defining that as the "most outstanding player." I love Gerhart. He's been the heart and soul of coach Jim Harbaugh's Stanford team. A few days ago, I wanted him to win it. I think I still want him to win it. But if I had a vote, I'd have to give it to Suh. There are many ways to define "outstanding," and one of the easiest ways is to give it to the most dominant. There was clearly no more dominant player this year than Ndamukong Suh. Many people are calling him the most dominant DT to ever play college football. I won't pretend to know if that is true or not, but I can say that with my own eyes he's been dominant week in and week out. I don't think the voters are ready to take this step, but Ndamukong Suh is the type of player who could transcend history and become the first defensive lineman to win the Heisman. After Suh, I would vote Gerhart and then Boise State QB Kellen Moore. Like all Heisman voters, I have my biases. As a Louisiana Tech grad, I see Boise State a lot, and I love Moore. The sophomore threw for 39 TDs and only 3 INTs to lead Boise State to its second straight undefeated regular season. Moore has lost only one game as a starter, and that was against TCU in last year's bowl game. I also gave a lot of consideration to Clemson senior RB C.J. Spiller, who is one of the most explosive players in the country. He had a Heisman moment in the ACC title game with 233 yards and 4 TDs, and although he's "only" rushed for 1,145 yards and 11 TDs, Spiller made a difference in the passing game (33-445-4), didn't fumble a single time all year and also was explosive on special teams (918 punt/kickoff return yards and 5 TDs). In the end, though, I would lean toward Moore over Spiller.