Friday, June 29, 2007

Grading the NBA Draft

Here's something you don't see everyday -- sports on my Strictly Sports blog. Wow! Tonight was the 2007 NBA Draft, which I watched from the first pick to the last while at work. Below is my team-by-team analysis:

Atlanta Hawks -- Al Horford (No. 3), Acie Law IV (No. 11)
Analysis: The Hawks had two lottery selections and had been mentioned in trade talks trying to land Amare Stoudemire from Phoenix. Instead, they kept the picks and chose Horford, a power forward from Florida, and Law, a point guard from Texas A&M. I like both of these picks. At first glance, I didn't like the Horford pick, because they passed up another point guard in Mike Conley Jr. Instead, they got the point guard they really liked in Law. Some analysts are concerned he's not a pure point guard, but I really like him and think he's more polished and ready to contribute compared to Conley. For a franchise that has made quite a few boneheaded moves on draft day in recent years, this was a good night for the Hawks.

Boston Celtics -- Jeff Green (No. 5), Gabe Pruitt (No. 32)
Analysis: After saying he wasn't trading the No. 5 pick, Celtics GM Danny Ainge then went out and traded the No. 5 pick. It's actually a good move for the Celtics, who get an established star in SG Ray Allen from Seattle (along with the rights to 35th pick Glen Davis) to pair with Paul Pierce. It may not be a great long-term move, as both Allen and Pierce are aging, but it gives Boston a solid backcourt with great experience and helps this team become a competitor in the East. Pruitt is a first-round talent who slipped to the second round, but he makes this roster and contributes next season.

Charlotte Bobcats -- Brandan Wright (No. 8), Jared Dudley (No. 22)
Analysis: Brandan Wright learned one thing on draft night -- don't call out Michael Jordan. After saying His Airness "didn't want any" of Wright on the court, Jordan proved him correct by trading Wright to Golden State for Jason Richardson. It's not a great move for the Bobcats, as Wright has a lot of potential, but Richardson gives them a 20-plus point scorer and someone to build the team around. Charlotte has a lot of good young players, and Richardson could become the glue-guy that helps Charlotte begin competing in the East. Dudley was the ACC Player of the Year, but at 6-7, 225 pounds, he's a classic NBA tweener. He gives a lot of energy and plays hard, and because of that, he'll probably make the rotation -- but he isn't going to be a star in the NBA.

Chicago Bulls -- Joakim Noah (No. 9), Aaron Gray (No. 49), JamesOn Curry (No. 51)
Analysis: Noah has been praised for the better part of two seasons for being the backbone on Florida's back-to-back title-winning teams. He's intense. He's tenacious. He plays with a lot of energy and heart. But how is he any different from Tyrus Thomas, a top five pick the Bulls traded for on draft day last year? He's not. Not that the Bulls have any need positions, but I don't see Noah as an upgrade on this roster. Gray is a big 7-0 center, and Curry is an undersized two-guard. Both of them will have a hard time making the Bulls' roster.

Cleveland Cavaliers -- No picks
Analysis: Incomplete. The Cavs may have made the NBA Finals this past season, but they do have a lot of holes that need to be filled around LeBron James. Unfortunately for them, those needs will have to be addressed through free agency.

Dallas Mavericks -- Nick Fazekas (No. 34), Renaldas Seibutus (No. 50), Milovan Rakovic (No. 60)
Analysis: The Mavs didn't have a first-round pick, and the chances any of these three make the roster is slim. Fazekas was a great college player, who I had the chance to see personally on a couple of occasions since he played at Nevada, which plays against Louisiana Tech in the WAC. Fazekas is a great shooter, tough competitor and a solid rebounder -- but he's not very athletic, has slow feet and will have a tough time making the transition to the NBA. The other two players are foreigners who will likely continue to play overseas for at least another couple of seasons.

Denver Nuggets -- No picks.
Analysis: Again, it's tough to analyze something that's not there. But Nuggets fans need to remember their draft came during the season when they traded for Allen Iverson. It didn't work out that well for them last year, but with an offseason to work on chemistry between Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggest could become a player in 2007-08.

Detroit Pistons -- Rodney Stuckey (No. 15), Arron Afflalo (No. 27), Sammy Mejia (No. 57)
Analysis: Joe Dumars has always been willing to step outside the box -- but this far outside? The Pistons point guard, Chauncey Billups, has opted to test free agency. Their two best players are SG Richard Hamilton and SF Tayshaun Prince. So what does Detroit do? Drafts three wing players. Stuckey is a small-school guy from Eastern Washington who's a dynamic scorer on that level. Afflalo was a great three-year player at UCLA, while Mejia is a hard-nosed player from DePaul. On the surface, I like all three of these guys. Where the problem comes is when all three of them are drafted by the same team, which happens to have two All-Stars on the wing.

Golden State Warriors -- Marco Bellineli (No. 18), Jermareo Davidson (No. 36), Stephane Lasme (No. 46)
Analysis: As mentioned before, the Warriors traded SG Jason Richardson to Charlotte for the No. 8 pick, Brandan Wright from North Carolina. Wright is a 6-10 forward who loves to run the floor and can finish in transition, which means he'll fit in well with the Warriors, who run a wide-open offense. Bellineli, who comes from Italy, is one of the best shooters in the world. Since Golden State shoots more 3s than any other team, he'll also fit in well. Expect Bellineli to challenge immediately for the starting SG spot vacated by Richardson's departure. Davidson was sent to Charlotte as part of the Richardson trade, while Lasme is an undersized (6-7) power forward who can block shots but might not make the roster. With Wright and Bellineli, the Warriors picked up two contributors.

Houston Rockets -- Aaron Brooks (No. 26), Brad Newley (No. 54)
Analysis: Brooks is a strange pick here, as most people didn't expect him to go in the first round. He was a good college point guard at Oregon, but he's very small for NBA standards at just 6-0, maybe even 5-11. He's not a pure scorer and doesn't shoot the ball all that well. He should have a tough time seeing playing time next year, especially since the Rockets just acquired PG Mike James. Newly, a SG from Australia, is an athletic slasher who might stay 'down under' a little longer to continue developing. The Rockets also traded for the rights of Purdue power forward Carl Landry, taken 31st overall by Seattle.

Indiana Pacers -- No picks.
Analysis: If anybody needed to make a move on draft day, it was Indiana. A team desperately in need of a makeover, the Pacers could have moved PF Jermaine O'Neal for a high pick or several picks and began the rebuilding process. The Pacers did send a 2009 second-round pick to Miami for Stanko Barac, but the big center likely will remain in Europe for at least another year.

Los Angeles Clippers -- Al Thornton (No. 14), Jared Jordan (No. 45)
Analysis: I really, really like the Thornton pick. Thornton can play both forward positions and is a great competitor. I'm surprised he fell all the way to 14. Most mock drafts had him going in the top 10. Thornton should get the chance to play a lot in L.A. and may compete for Rookie of the Year honors. Jordan is an intriguing pick in the second round, a point guard from Marist. At 6-2 -- and white -- many scouts believe he has the chance to be the next Steve Nash. His basketball IQ keeps him several steps ahead of the rest of the game. I think Jordan will make the Clippers roster and contribute in a couple of seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers -- Javaris Crittenton (No. 19), Sun Yue (No. 40), Marc Gasol (No. 48)
Analysis: Crittenton is a big, physical point guard from Georgia Tech, who at 6-5, will become a solid player in the NBA. He spent just one season at Ga. Tech and may not be ready to step in immediately for the Lakers, but it's a good choice for them. He could be their point guard of the future. Yue is a 6-9 PG from China, but he'll have to make the transition to the wing in the NBA. Gasol is a 7-footer from Spain who is the younger brother of Memphis' Pau Gasol. Marc probably will stay in Spain for a couple of years as he continues to develop.

Memphis Grizzlies -- Mike Conley Jr. (No. 4)
Analysis: Conley could become the third-best pick in this draft. The freshman from Ohio State must prove himself without big Greg Oden, who he's played with since the duo were 12. But Conley's quickness, savvy and basketball IQ have him projected as one of the next great point guards in the NBA. He played just one season of college ball, so he might have a slower learning curve in the NBA. But the Grizz needed a PG, and Conley will be expected to play from Day 1.

Miami Heat -- Jason Smith (No. 20), Stanko Barac (No. 39)
Analysis: Two picks, two trades. The Heat sent Smith to Philadelphia for Daequan Cook, selected 21st, and a 2009 second-round pick. They sent Barac to Indiana for a 2009 second-round pick. So the Heat came away with Cook, a 6-5 SG who is very talented, but very raw. I like Cook -- a lot. Think he's a great prospect, but I have to wonder why the Heat would want him, considering their superstar Dwyane Wade also is a SG. Cook might not be expected to play much as a rookie, but I look for him to become a big-time player shortly.

Milwaukee Bucks -- Yi Jianlian (No. 6), Ramon Sessions (No. 56)
Analysis: I really like the Yi pick at No. 6, as I feel he's the third-best prospect in the draft. At 6-11, the Chinese big man isn't Yao Ming. He's far more superior athletically, and is more of a Kevin Garnett/Dirk Nowitzki kind of player who can step away from the basket, shoot and put the ball on the floor. He's also a very explosive athlete who can finish around the rim. There are some questions about whether he'll play for the Bucks, as he wanted to play in a city that has a big Asian population -- like Los Angeles. But the Bucks made the right move picking the best available player. Sessions is a solid point guard who knows how to get to the basket and dish. He should make that roster and fight for playing time. A very good draft for a building franchise.

Minnesota Timberwolves -- Corey Brewer (No. 7), Chris Richard (No. 41)
Analysis: Two Florida guys who are winners. Brewer, one of three Gators taken in the top nine picks, might be the best of the bunch. He's a long, athletic player at 6-8 who was the best defender in the draft. He also has all the potential to continue to develop offensively into an all-around superstar. Should the Timberwolves keep Kevin Garnett, he's going to enjoy playing with Brewer. Richard came off the bench for the Gators, and may not make this roster, but he's a big, rugged player who will give intense minutes when called upon.

New Jersey Nets -- Sean Williams (No. 17)
Analysis: The old adage is "high risk, high reward," and that's certainly the case with Williams, who was kicked out of school at Boston College in January. He's a long player at 6-11 who is a tremendous shot-blocker and finisher in the paint. His potential is that of a lottery pick, but he also brings a great deal of baggage that could have him out of the league shortly.

New Orleans Hornets -- Julian Wright (No. 13), Adam Haluska (No. 43)
Analysis: Personally, I'm not a big Julian Wright fan. But the Hornets are thrilled. Coach Byron Scott could not have thought Wright would fall all the way to 13. Wright is a 6-9 SF from Kansas who does everything well. He runs the floor. He finishes in transition. He plays defense. He's a good shooter. A good passer. I wouldn't be surprised if Wright steps right in at SF and takes over the starting role for the departing Desmond Mason. Haluska is a good athlete and shooter from Iowa, but he'll have to work very hard to make the team.

New York Knicks -- Wilson Chandler (No. 23)
Analysis: Knicks fans don't care what Chandler does, although he could turn into a solid contributor along the mold of last year's first-round pick, Renaldo Balkman. No, the story of the draft came via a trade with Portland. The Knicks picked up PF Zach Randolph, Portland's leading scorer last year who is a 25/10 guy and an All-Star in the East. New York also got rid of one of its big contracts, sending Steve Francis out West. The Knicks did have to part with Channing Frye, an athletic PF who was the 8th pick two years ago. Also heading to New York are Dan Dickau and Fred J0nes. This is a step in the right direction for Isiah Thomas and the Knicks. Randolph can become a superstar in the East.

Orlando Magic -- Reyshawn Terry (No. 44)
Analysis: You don't expect too much from second-round picks, but Terry might be a surprise in Orlando. He has all the tools to be successful, even though he didn't have a great career at North Carolina. The 6-8 small forward is a very good value here. The Magic traded their other second-round pick, No. 54, to Houston, which selected Brad Newley.

Philadelphia 76ers -- Thaddeus Young (No. 12), Daequan Cook (No. 21), Petteri Koponen (No. 30), Kyrylo Fesenko (No. 38)
Analysis: The 76ers, like many teams, went with freshmen with their first two picks -- the SF Young from Ga. Tech and the SG Cook from Ohio State. They then dealt Cook to Miami for PF Jason Smith of Colorado State. Personally, I think they traded the wrong guy. I think Cook has a better upside and will become a better pro than Young. Philly also dealt Koponen to Portland for the rights to the 42nd pick, Derrick Byars. Byars was a solid player at Vanderbilt who could make the 76ers roster. And Fesenko is a steal in the second round from Ukraine. He'll continue to play overseas but the 7-1 20-year-old could surface in Philly as a force down the road.

Phoenix Suns -- Rudy Fernandez (No. 24), Alando Tucker (No. 29), D.J. Strawberry (No. 59)
Analysis: For the fourth straight year, the Suns sold or traded its first-round pick, sending Fernandez to Portland for money. It's like the Suns don't want to get any better. Seriously, it's ridiculous. I like the Tucker pick, though. He's a combo SG/SF player who has tons of leadership, played at a high level for four years at Wisconsin and will fit in nicely in Phoenix's system. I really like that pick. Strawberry, a 6-5 combo guard, is a good player but not a great one and probably won't make the Suns roster.

Portland TrailBlazers -- Greg Oden (No. 1), Josh McRoberts (No. 37), Derrick Byars (No. 42), Taurean Green (No. 52), Demetris Nichols (No. 53)
Analysis: Portland could have stopped after Oden and had the best draft of all the teams. Enough can't be said about Oden, the 7-foot center who is now the cornerstone of the franchise. But the Blazers didn't stop there, as they continue to rebuild their team. They traded Randolph, who is the last link to the "JailBlazers" teams of old, and got a solid backup PF/C in Channing Frye to play behind Oden and last year's first-round pick LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers also bought Rudy Fernandez from the Suns, traded Byars for Koponen, giving them two solid foreign players. Green was Florida's leading scorer last year, while Nichols was Syracuse's best player. And McRoberts, a supremely talented big man from Duke, is comfortable playing beside Oden, as the two are former AAU teammates. Portland has done a tremendous job the past two years of rebuilding their roster and will become a team to be reckoned with over the next decade.

Sacramento Kings -- Spencer Hawes (No. 10)
Analysis: Any time you can get a potential franchise center at No. 10, you take him -- and the Kings did just that. Hawes is a 7-foot-1 center from Washington who spent just one year with the Huskies. He has a bevy of low post moves and is a good rebounder. There are questions about his athleticism, but as he continues to get bigger and grow into his body, he'll continue to improve as a player. Hawes is going to be a great center in the NBA.

San Antonio Spurs -- Tiago Splitter (No. 28), Marcus Williams (No. 33), Giorgos Printezis (No. 58)
Analysis: Honestly, what do the NBA champs need? Splitter is an enigma, as he's been in and out of the draft pool the past couple of years, and could have been a potential lottery pick in the past. Instead, the Spurs plucked him at No. 28. They've had great success in the past with foreign players, and Splitter is the next in a long line. He's a 6-11 power forward who will fit in nicely with Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson alongside Tim Duncan. Williams is a very talented small forward from Arizona who could play on a number of teams. He'll have a tough time playing for the Spurs though. Printezis is a tough-nosed SF from Greece who will continue to develop over there for a couple of years.

Seattle SuperSonics -- Kevin Durant (No. 2), Carl Landry (No. 31), Glen Davis (No. 35)
Analysis: Like the Blazers, Seattle could have stopped after the selection of Durant and called it a successful day. But the Sonics were movers on this day. They shipped franchise player Ray Allen and Davis to Boston for the No. 5 pick, Jeff Green, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West. Which means Durant is now the face of the franchise. The Sonics knew they couldn't keep both Allen and free agent Rashard Lewis, so they're hanging their hat on being able to re-sign Lewis. I'm not sure what I think about the strategy of having Durant, Lewis and Green -- who are all basically 6-9/6-10 small forwards -- but it does give the Sonics some options. They also sold Landry for a later second-round draft pick. Durant and Green will get chances to play early and often.

Toronto Raptors -- No picks.
Analysis: The Raptors are an up-and-coming young team, and it would have been nice for them to have a pick to add to their roster. Instead, they'll have to try to improve through free agency.

Utah Jazz -- Morris Almond (No. 25), Herbert Hill (No. 55)
Analysis: Jerry Sloan doesn't expect much from his rookies, preferring to let them sit and learn for a year. With rising superstar Deron Williams at PG and All-Star Carlos Boozer at PF, the Jazz could use some shooters to help open things up. Almond fits the bill as perhaps the best shooter in the draft. He should get some chances to play early, as SG is the Jazz's only weakness. Hill, a PF from Providence, is a good value pick late in the second round and could become the third second-round pick in two years to make the Jazz roster.

Washington Wizards -- Nick Young (No. 16), Dominic McGuire (No. 47)
Analysis: Young is a great, great value at No. 16. He's a lottery pick, possibly a top 10 pick, and Wizards were very content to pluck him with the 16th pick. At 6-foot-6, Young can play both wing positions and will make a nice complimentary piece to Wizards superstar Gilbert Arenas. Young doesn't need a ton of shots to be successful, which is good, because playing with Arenas he's not going to get many. McGuire, a 6-9 SF from Fresno State, is an intriguing prospect who plays defense, rebounds and blocks shots. He doesn't, however, play very good offense. Nonetheless, he has a good shot to make Washington's roster.

No comments: