Back in July 2011, I tried to predict the U.S. roster for the 2014 World Cup. I saw only a little bit of success. Of the 23 players that I picked, only eight actually made the roster. (I updated that post in June 2013 and got 14 of the 23 correct.) Truth be told, I'm a lot more knowledgeable about U.S. soccer than I was back then, so I think I could do a better job in 2020 than I did back in 2011/2013.
Back in 2013, I had a pretty good grasp on the goalkeeper situation, but that's because it's always been pretty clear who the top couple of keepers in the country are. I had a decent handle on the midfield depth chart, but struggled in defense and at forward. Those were our two big areas of weakness back then, and I still say those are our areas of weakness now.
Before I jump in with my predictions, let me just say that I'm assuming we qualify for the World Cup in Qatar in 2022, though that's no longer a given after the 2018 debacle. For the first time since 1990, the U.S. is trying to qualify for a World Cup after not qualifying for the previous one. However, the talent pool and depth chart is in a much better position than it was four years ago, though it's still to be determined if Gregg Berhalter will be a better steward of the program than Jurgen Klinnsman was.
I'm going to do things a bit differently this time. I will pick two rosters. The first is the one I would pick today on July 26, 2020. The second is the one I think will ultimately be selected for the World Cup in 28 months. Obviously, I can't predict injuries and it will be curious to see which players emerge and which ones fall off over the next two years. Without further ado, let's jump into my predictions.
Goalkeepers (3)
My team: Zach Steffen, Brad Guzan, Bill Hamid.Prediction: Steffen, Hamid, Sean Johnson.
Zach Steffen has emerged as the clear No. 1 for the U.S. National Team following a lengthy run by Tim Howard and Brad Guzan. Guzan is 35 and will be 38 at the World Cup. I definitely think he will be a part of the qualifying process, and while 38 does not disqualify him from being selected to the roster, it does make it a long shot. One thing that would help Guzan is there isn't a bevy of talented goalkeepers waiting in the wings. Steffen is the only one playing at a high level internationally, though he needs to solidify his club standing and become a full-time starter. After a standout career with the Columbus Crew, Steffen signed with Manchester City in the Premier League and spent this past season as a part-time starter for Fortuna Dusseldorf in the German Bundesliga. Guzan, Bill Hamid and Sean Johnson are all solid goalkeepers in MLS. Matt Turner and Jesse Gonzalez are two young MLS keepers who could get involved in the mix, as is Ethan Horvath, who plays for Club Brugge in the Belgian First Division.
Defenders (8)
My team: Antonee Robinson, John Brooks, Tim Ream, Sergino Dest, Fabian Johnson, Matt Miazga, Geoff Cameron, DeAndre Yedlin.Prediction: Robinson, Brooks, Aaron Long, Tyler Adams, Kobe Hernandez-Foster, Miazga, Miles Robinson, Dest.
Antonee Robinson has emerged as the top left back in America, and it won't be long before he is playing for one of the top clubs in the world. He was linked to AC Milan, but a medical issue killed the transfer. I expect he'll be playing in the Premier League, Bundesliga, or Italian Serie A next season. With Robinson, who is just 22, and Sergino Dest, the 19-year-old right back who is a major target of Bayern Munich, the U.S. finally has a young fullback combination that can play anywhere in the world. The U.S. also has veterans in DeAndre Yedlin and Fabian Johnson, who at 32 is a free agent and could find his way to MLS this offseason after a standout career in the Bundesliga. John Brooks, when healthy, is clearly the top central defender in the player pool. Tim Ream has been a fixture in England for nearly a decade, but he'll be 35 during the World Cup and probably won't make the final roster. Geoff Cameron is another player whose versatility would be a great asset today, but at 37 will be too old for Qatar. Matt Miazga made a splash by signing with Chelsea in 2016, but he's spent the past four seasons out on loan and has yet to suit up for the big club. At 25 years old, you'd like to see him be able to emerge as a player in the Premier League.
There are a few differences between my roster and my prediction, beyond just the old guys aging out of the player pool. Gregg Berhalter seems to fancy Tyler Adams as a right back who pushes up into the attack, while many others (including me) view the 21-year-old Bundesliga star as a central defender. There's no doubt he deserves to be in the Starting XI, but where remains to be seen. I have Aaron Long and Miles Robinson, two of the top defenders in MLS, replacing Ream and Cameron. I took a flyer on left back Kobe Hernandez-Foster, an 18-year-old who plays in the youth system of Bundesliga club Wolfsburg. He's considered the second-best Under-20 defender in the pool behind Dest and would be 20 at the next World Cup.
Midfielders (9)
My team: Christian Pulisic, Weston McKinnie, Tyler Adams, Jordan Morris, Tyler Boyd, Alfredo Morales, Gio Reyna, Paxton Pomykal, Darlington Nagbe,Prediction: Pulisic, McKinnie, Morales, Paul Arriola, Boyd, Nagbe, Reyna, Pomykal, Duane Holmes.
At 21 years old, Christian Pulisic is already the greatest player in U.S. men's soccer history. Before Pulisic, I would argue Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Claudio Reyna belonged on the Mt. Rushmore of U.S. men's soccer players. Pulisic has already passed all of them. He emerged as a starter in the Bundesliga as a 17-year-old with Borussia Dortmund and moved to the Premier League with Chelsea this season, where he scored nine goals (tied for the third most in a season in the Premier League by an American; Clint Dempsey scored 17 and 12 for Fulham). Pulisic is three goals away from moving into the top 10 all-time for the U.S. men's national team. Again, he's 21 years old. He plays mostly on the left wing for Chelsea (and before that Dortmund), but in the U.S. system, the team is at its best when he is the attacking midfielder in the 4-2-3-1 formation.
My squad would have Pulisic leading the attack with Weston McKinnie and Tyler Adams, two dynamic two-way players in the Bundesliga, playing behind him and Jordan Morris and Tyler Boyd playing on the wings. Morris has emerged into one of the top wingers in MLS with the Seattle Sounders, while Boyd established himself as a key figure on the right wing after switching from New Zealand to America. Alfredo Morales and Darlington Nagbe give my midfield a veteran presence as well as versatility, while Gio Reyna and Paxton Pomykal are youngsters who will be fixtures on the national team for years to come. Morales has spent the past decade in Germany, including four of the past five seasons in the Bundesliga with Ingolstadt and Fortuna Dusseldorf. Nagbe has in the past refused call-ups to the national team after being a major cog on the squad that failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, but he's playing at such a high level with the Columbus Crew in MLS that Berhalter likely will continue working on him to get him to recommit to the national team. Pomykal is a 20-year-old attacking midfielder who emerged as a starter for FC Dallas last season, and while he's supremely talented, it remains to be seen if he can crack into the starting lineup in a deep, talented central midfield. Reyna, meanwhile, is headed to the starting lineup sooner than later to pair with Pulisic as the future of American soccer. The son of the aforementioned Mt. Rushmore member Claudio Reyna, Gio is a 17-year-old who just completed his first full season in the Bundesliga with Dortmund. He'll turn 20 a week before the start of the 2022 World Cup, but it's not absurd to think he'll be a starter on this team by then. He is a natural fit at one of the two central defensive midfield spots, and he is going to be one of the best box-to-box midfielders in the world sooner than later.
There are only two changes between my squad today and what I think Berhalter will do in two years. That's mainly because so much of the talent in this pool is so young and already establishing itself as being more talented and productive than any previous generation. I dropped Tyler Adams because I ultimately think Berhalter will lock him in as a right back instead of a central midfielder, and I moved Jordan Morris from the wing to a forward position for the World Cup. In their places, I went with Paul Arriola, who provides some sorely needed depth on the wing and Duane Holmes, who's quietly having a great career in the English Championship (second division) and will be in his prime at 28 years old for the World Cup.
I do want to take a second to acknowledge the all-time great career of Michael Bradley. He's been easily one of the top 10 players in U.S. history. His leadership and work rate as a box-to-box defensive midfielder have been elite for the past 12-15 years. He certainly can still play a valuable role during the qualifying process. He's still good enough to play at an elite level, but he will be 35 at the World Cup and I just believe there are going to be better options than him in 2022.
Forwards (3)
My team: Jozy Altidore, Josh Sargent, Jonathan Lewis.Prediction: Jordan Morris, Sargent, Tim Weah.
Jozy Altidore is still the best striker in the country. He's third all time in goals scored in a U.S. uniform. We can all acknowledge he has shortcomings. We can say he didn't live up to the expectations we set for him. His international club career was not nearly as good as his domestic club career. But if I'm fielding a roster today for a friendly or a World Cup qualifier, he's my choice as the first-team forward. It's just not a deep position. Josh Sargent and Tim Weah, who most view as the clear-cut No. 2 and No. 3 at forward, are still trying to get their international club careers kicked off. Sargent is 20 and got regular playing time for Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, scoring four goals in 34 total appearances, but Bremen had to win a playoff game to avoid relegation. Jonathan Lewis is more of a winger than a true center forward, but I really like the game of the 23-year-old Colorado Rapids attacker. I'm not sure he can actually get on the field, but the depth at this position is really, really thin.
Ultimately, I went with Morris as my prediction as the No. 1 striker for the World Cup over Altidore. Jozy will turn 33 prior at the start of the World Cup, and while he should still have something left in the tank, I'm not sure he'll still be able to carry the load as the first-choice striker. Maybe Sargent and/or Tim Weah are ready for that burden at age 22 and Jozy can be a super sub off the bench. But in case they aren't, Morris likely is the selection. Weah needs some luck to get his once-promising career back on track. He has gone from Paris Saint-Germain to Celtic to Lille in the past three seasons. He also suffered two hamstring injuries that have limited his playing time. Getting healthy and a consistent club playing time is going to be key if he hopes to land a spot on the World Cup roster.
Starting XI (4-2-3-1)
GK: Zach SteffenLB: Antonee Robinson
CB: John Brooks
CB: Aaron Long
RB: Sergino Dest
CDM: Tyler Adams
CDM: Gio Reyna
ACM: Weston McKinnie
LW: Christian Pulisic
RW: Jordan Morris
CF: Jozy Altidore
