Epic Soccer Blog, Part II

It's been almost two years (minus five days) since I wrote a blog post titled "Epic Soccer Blog" in which I attempted to predict the U.S. men's national soccer team's roster for the 2014 World Cup. A whole lot has changed in the past two years, not the least of which is it has a new manager. When I wrote that post, Bob Bradley was still the boss. Not it's Jurgen Klinsmann. Plenty more has changed. New faces have emerged, especially players who have ties to Klinsmann's home country, Germany. Other faces have basically disappeared. Still, two years after that originally post and about a year away from the World Cup in Brazil, I'd like to take another crack at predicting the squad. I'll evaluate my choices from the summer of 2011 and see what it appears I got right and what I completely whiffed on, then pick an updated roster. (Note: There's still plenty of time for players to jostle for position on the depth chart. Guys will emerge at next month's Gold Cup as well as in the remaining World Cup qualifiers, where the U.S. can wrap up a berth in Brazil in September.)

Goalkeepers
Previous choices: Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, Sean Johnson.
Updated choices: Howard, Guzan, Nick Rimando.

Howard has been the unquestioned No. 1 choice for several years, serving as a backup during the 2006 World Cup and then playing every minute during the 2010 World Cup. The 34-year-old Everton keeper hasn't done anything to lose his job, even as Guzan has made a push for more playing time after a standout season for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Despite Guzan's push, Howard started all three recent World Cup qualifiers and was solid in three U.S. victories. The 27-year-old Guzan provides the U.S. with a very capable backup, while the No. 3 slot is up for grabs. Originally, I chose Johnson, the 24-year-old Chicago Fire keeper. There isn't really any question that Johnson is the future in net for the U.S., and I originally picked him because I don't believe Rimando is anything more than an undersized backup. Johnson, however, hasn't been great for the Fire this year, while the 34-year-old Rimando is one of four MLS keepers to give less than a goal per game and his 77 percent save percentage rate is tied for tops in the league. Simply put, at this point, I think Klinsmann trusts Rimando more than Johnson.

Missing the cut: Johnson, Bill Hamid, Tally Hall. Again, I think Johnson is the frontrunner to push Guzan in 2018, and most likely, two of these three guys will make that roster with Howard and Rimando getting up there in age. We'll likely get a better feel for the pecking order with these guys at the Gold Cup. Rimando, Johnson, Hamid and Hall are the four keepers who will battle for three spots on that roster, and we'll see who emerges when given the opportunity in net.

Defense
Previous choices: Gale Agbossoumonde, Joe Amon, Carlos Bocanegra, Timmy Chandler, Maurice Edu, Omar Gonzalez, Eric Lichaj, Tim Ream.
Updated choices: DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, Bocanegra, Geoff Cameron, Chandler, Steve Cherundolo, Gonzalez, Fabian Johnson.

Obviously, I didn't do quite so well here. Five of the eight are players I didn't have on my roster two years ago. "The Boss" is still a young prospect at 21, trying to find his way in MLS. He hasn't made an appearance for the U.S. national team in three years, though I wouldn't count him out down the road. I took a flyer on Amon, who just finished his freshman year at North Carolina. He has a long way to go to get to this level. Edu, Lichaj and Ream all are guys who seem to have fallen out of favor and weren't put on the 35-man provisional Gold Cup roster.

As for guys who I think will make, it's an eclectic group. Beasley has had a resurgence after moving to left back after spending most of his career as an offensive player. Besler and Gonzales have formed the center-back duo in the past three World Cup qualifiers, and though they don't have a ton of experience (about a dozen caps between them), they seem to be the frontrunners to start in central defense in Brazil. I had counted out Cherundolo, who will be 35 next year, but the experience he and former captain Bocanegra, 34, (who needs a strong Gold Cup showing and to clear up his club situation) could prove invaluable. Cameron's versatility (he can play right back, central defense or defensive midfielder) and strong performance with Stoke City in the Premier League make him a must for this roster. Johnson, meanwhile, has been a standout at both left back and left wing and is a strong contender to start at either position.

As of today, if I had to pick a starting lineup of those eight, it would be Chandler, Besler, Gonzalez and Johnson -- though I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson started at left wing with Beasley at left back and/or Cameron started at defensive midfield.

Missing the cut: Edgar Castillo, Clarence Goodson, Oguchi Onyewu, Michael Orozco, Michael Parkhurst, Ream. Most of these players, particularly Onyewu, a former stalwart in central defense, will get a chance to make a name for themselves at the Gold Cup. The problem for these guys is there aren't many spots available.

Midfielders
Previous choices: Freddy Adu, Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, Mixx Diskerud, Landon Donovan, Benny Feilhaber, Stu Holden, Brek Shea.
Updated choices: Bradley, Dempsey, Donovan, Edu, Holden, Jermaine Jones, Shea, Graham Zusi.

Midfield is clearly the deepest position in the country, and I'd feel comfortable with any of these eight players stepping into the starting lineup. In fact, I'd argue that Klinsmann is going to have some very difficult decisions ahead. Dempsey has developed into a world-class player as a withdrawn striker or central midfielder. His flair and creativity is brilliant, and he's well on his way to passing Donovan as the greatest player to ever wear the stars and stripes. Donovan hasn't worked his way back onto the roster after his self-imposed soccer sabbatical at the beginning of the year, but his form has been fine in recent weeks with the L.A. Galaxy, and he's likely to shine during the Gold Cup.

The U.S. under Klinsmann has typically played a 4-5-1 that sometimes has been defensive-minded and other times looks like a 4-3-3 with two attacking-minded withdrawn forwards in the midfield. Because of the versatility of the midfield (including Fabian Johnson's and Cameron's ability to play in the midfield), there are a number of different options. He can go more defensive-minded with Jones, Edu and/or Cameron and Bradley all in together, or he can really attack with Bradley as a defensive midfielder with Holden, Dempsey and two wingers. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

My preference would be to play Shea and Zusi (who has been playing so well that Donovan hasn't really been missed) on the wings with a central trio of Bradley, Donovan and Dempsey. But I also know that Klinsmann is a huge fan of Jermaine Jones, and it's going to be likely that he's in the starting XI. There is depth at every position -- Jones, Edu, Bradley and Cameron can play defensive mid; Bradley, Donovan, Dempsey and Holden can play attacking mid; Zusi and Donovan can play on the right wing -- except for left wing. Shea is the only true left winger on the roster, though Beasley and Fabian Johnson can move up from defense if needed.

No matter what, I like our options in the midfield.

Missing the cut: Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya, Joe Corona, Brad Davis, Diskerud, Luis Gil, Feilhaber, Sacha Kljestan, Danny Williams. There are a lot of quality players on this list, but just not enough roster spots. I know Klinsmann is a big fan of Beckerman and Williams, so I wouldn't be surprised to see either find his way onto the team. Luis Gil is a future star at 20 years old, but he's not ready to mix it up at this level just yet.

Forwards
Previous choices: Juan Agudelo, Jozy Altidore, Teal Bunbury, Charlie Davies.
Updated choices: Altidore, Herculez Gomez, Eddie Johnson, Jack McInerney.

In my defense, there were tons of questions about the lack of U.S. finishing outside of Dempsey and Donovan in 2011. Altidore has quieted that with his play of late, both on the club level and internationally, where he has scored in four consecutive games. It's tough to believe that he's still only 23, but he's starting to develop into the type of quality finisher every U.S. soccer fan hoped he'd be when he burst onto the scene at age 17. Eddie Johnson has reinvigorated his national career at age 29 since moving back from Europe to MLS, and he looked very dangerous pairing with Altidore during recent qualifiers. Gomez is a strong finisher and heady player, though he's likely not one of your top options. McInerney, 20, is tied for the MLS lead in goals so far this season, and he'll get his chance to prove his worth during the Gold Cup. I'm taking a flyer on him impressing, though it certainly wouldn't shock me to see Klinsman carry Donovan as a forward and take an extra midfielder like Beckerman or Danny Williams.

Missing the cut: Agudelo, Terrance Boyd, Will Bruin, Bunbury, Alan Gordon, Joe Gyau, Chris Wondolowski. The list of names here tells you that there still isn't much depth up front for the U.S. national team. There's not a lot of fear being struck into opposing teams outside of Altidore these days. Agudelo, at 20, is another player similar to Altidore who made his national debut at a very young age and has struggled with the huge expectations thrust upon him. He seems to be finding his form this year, with five goals in 13 games, but it hasn't been enough to get back into the national team mix. Bunbury, meanwhile, just returned this week from an ACL injury he suffered last yar, and Davies is a longshot to ever make it back into the national team mix after a serious car accident in 2009. Bruin, 23, scored 16 goals in his second MLS season last year and has four so far this year. He'll get a chance to show what he can do during the Gold Cup. Gyau and Boyd are impressive young strikers who still need to earn more chances, while Gordon and Wondolowski are two of the better forwards in MLS who are hoping to make the Gold Cup roster.

Overall Outlook
My gut tells me this is going to be one of the most talented U.S. national teams to take the field when the World Cup begins on June 12, 2014. But it also will be old. The average age of the 23 players I've projected to make the team will be 28.9 years old. Nine of the players (including arguably the two best in Dempsey and Donovan) will be 30 or older. Only five players are 25 or younger.  

Something I've struggled with is if my generation (at age 31, I'm the same age as Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley, two national team mainstays, while Clint Dempsey is 364 days younger than me) truly is the golden generation of soccer in this country, or if the next couple of generations just haven't produced the level of talent that's needed. That's a hard question to answer. Bradley, who will be 26 next year and is a captain-in-waiting, is easily one of the top three players on the team. Altidore will just be 24, he's been on the national team since he was 17 and he's the best striker we've had since Brian McBride -- and could be the greatest ever. But you just don't see many of the young players that have come up through the junior national teams developing into major contributors on the senior team. It certainly makes me worry about taking an inexperienced squad to Russia in 2018. Almost assuredly, keepers Howard and Rimando, defenders Beasley, Bocanegra and Cherundolo; and likely Dempsey, Donovan, Jones, Gomez and Eddie Johnson will be too old to contribute then. Who's coming through the ranks to replace those guys? It would be nice if some young players were able to get World Cup experience.  

Let's look back at some prior World Cups where young players were able to get some experience:  

1998 -- Frankie Hejduk, Eddie Pope, Brian McBride and Claudio Reyna all were 25 or younger.

2002 -- Donovan and Beasley were 20, Cherundolo was 23, John O'Brien was 24 and Pablo Mastroeni was 25.

2006 -- Eddie Johnson was 22, Dempsey and Bobby Convey were 23; Donovan, Beasley and Onyewu were 24.

2010 -- (Note: This was a really young squad.) Altidore was 20, Bradley and Jose Torres were 22; Holden, Jon Spector, Edu and Robbe Findlay were 24; Fielhaber, Guzan and Jon Bornstein were 25. (It should be noted that several of those young players aren't even in the mix for making the 2014 team.)  

It would be nice to have a Donovan, Beasley, Eddie Johnson, Dempsey, Bradley or Altidore on this squad. I guess my biggest issue is that while U.S. soccer is growing by leaps and bounds, I don't see that next superstar coming down the pipe. Maybe it's McInerney. Maybe it's Luis Gil, and he's just not ready. Or maybe he -- or some other young stud -- will make his presence known in the next year and earn one of the coveted 23 roster spots.  

I feel good about the talent level and the experience on this squad. There's no doubt this team can compete. It's all about the draw, which will happen in December. With a good draw, I think the U.S. can easily advance out of the group stage and into the knockout rounds, where it would then have a chance to make a run.  

If I were picking my starting XI, I would go with Howard, Chandler, Besler, Gonzalez, Fabian Johnson, Cameron, Bradley, Shea, Donovan, Dempsey, Altidore. However, I know that Klinsmann is a fan of Jermaine Jones, so he's likely to start in the defensive midfield (Cameron would be a good center back option then), and I wouldn't be surprised to see Zusi or Eddie Johnson get a look on the right side ahead of Donovan. No matter which way he chooses to go, Klinsmann seems to have options to play the style of soccer he talked about when he took the job two years ago. There have certainly been bumps along the way, but less than one year out from the World Cup, the team seems to be peaking. And that's certainly what U.S. soccer fans want to see.