Friday, July 05, 2013

What's going on in Nola?

So let me catch up real quick on what's going on with the New Orleans Pelicans. The team targeted restricted free agent Tyreke Evans, offering him a four-year, $44-million contract. He accepted. Fans (mostly) rejoiced. Then, they found out, no, it's actually a sign-and-trade bringing Evans to the Big Easy in return for last year's starting point guard, Greivis Vasquez, and starting center, Robin Lopez. OK ...

Of course, this came a week after the team traded not one but two first-round draft picks (this year's No. 6 pick and next year's first-rounder in a loaded draft [that is top-5 protected]) in return for former 76ers point guard Jrue Holiday. So in come Holiday and Evans, and out go two picks and two starters. I know the Hornets weren't very good last year, but that does seem like a high price to pay.

Vasquez finished third in the NBA last year in assists at 9.0 per game, and at $2.1 million would have been a great value even as a backup combo guard. Lopez was an unspectacular center, but at $5.1 million, he was a pretty cheap option. Now with those salaries out, and with Evans' and Holiday's $11 million salaries coming on the books, the Pelicans have about $58.4 million committed next year to seven players -- Holiday, Evans, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jason Smith and Austin Rivers -- with team options totaling about $2.5 million on three other players (Terrel Harris, Lance Thomas and Darius Miller). They also have their second-rounder, Baylor guard Pierre Jackson, and the rights to second-rounder Jeff Withey, a center from Kansas, coming over in the Evans trade.

The projected salary cap next year is $58.5 million, meaning that even without picking up the three team options, the Pelicans are over the cap. How do they fill out the roster with so little wiggle room, especially knowing the team is not going to approach the luxury tax level expected to be between $70 million and $71 million.

If they sign Jackson and Withey and pick up all three options, the Pelicans would have 12 players under contract totaling around $62 million. Because they're over the cap, the Pelicans would be able to offer a free agent the full mid-level exception of $5.15 million annually (or split that among multiple free agents).

I still have some major concerns about the way this roster is shaping up. The starting lineup today would likely feature a backcourt of the 6-4 Holiday, 6-3 Gordon and 6-5 Evans. While Holiday brings nice size for a point guard, Gordon and Evans are undersized for their positions. There are also major questions in the post. Davis is locked in as the power forward of the future, but who plays center? Is the Pelicans' brass comfortable with the combination of Jason Smith and Jeff Withey at the 5? That seems like a downgrade from last year. That would also leave Anderson, Rivers, Thomas, Miller, Jackson and Harris as bench options, with likely only Anderson and Rivers (assuming he improves over his ghastly rookie performance) as locks in the rotation.

It's clear that the Pelicans need to target a big man with the full mid-level exception. They're not going to be able to get someone like Paul Millsap or Carl Landry, most likely, for that kind of money. The best candidates likely are someone like Chris "Birdman" Andersen (who played in New Orleans in the past), Cole Aldrich, J.J. Hickson and DeJuan Blair. If they choose to go after a guard, some intriguing options likely would be Jarrett Jack (another former Hornet, though he's probably too expensive), Nate Robinson (again, maybe too pricey), Matt Barnes, Daniel Gibson and Wayne Ellington. All of those guys would immediately step in and contribute to the second unit.

Ultimately, Dell Demps still needs to tweak this roster. If he can flip Gordon for a couple of assets (or better yet, straight up for Indiana's Danny Granger), that would be a good thing to do. The fans aren't buying into Gordon after last summer's free agency fiasco, and he doesn't fit in with this small backcourt. They need to get bigger at small forward with Evans moving to the shooting guard position. I still don't fully understand the big picture, but I'm eagerly watching to find out.

No comments: